IT Now: Italy GDP nowcast
Latest estimate, 30 October 2026 at 08:12: Italy’s real GDP in Q3 2026 grew by 0.15% compared with the previous quarter. Likely range (80% probability): -0.25% to 0.53%. Compared with a year earlier: 0.94%. The estimate is up 0.06 percentage points from last week. This is our final estimate for Q3 2026, made with the data available before ISTAT’s preliminary estimate, due today.
Update, 30 October 2026 at 11:15: ISTAT’s preliminary estimate puts Italy’s GDP growth in Q3 2026 at 0% on the previous quarter. Our final nowcast, published on 30 October 2026 at 08:12 with the data available before the release, was 0.15% (80% range -0.25% to 0.53%). The chart below shows both.
Updated every Friday. Next official figure: ISTAT preliminary estimate for Q3 2026, due 30 October 2026.
What is this?
GDP measures the total value of what an economy produces. It is the broadest gauge of how the economy is doing, but it arrives late: ISTAT publishes its first estimate for a quarter about 30 days after the quarter ends. Until then, we lack an estimate for how the economy is doing right now.
A nowcast fills that gap. Every Friday I collect monthly indicators that come out well before GDP release (i.e. industrial production in Italy and Germany, retail sales, exports and imports, unemployment, business and consumer confidence, inflation and interest rates) and use a statistical model to turn them into an estimate of GDP growth in the current quarter. As the quarter goes on and more data arrive, the estimate is updated and usually becomes more precise.
How to read it. Growth is measured against the previous quarter, which is how ISTAT and the press report it. A value of 0.25% means GDP is about a quarter of a percent higher than three months earlier; negative values mean the economy is shrinking. Every estimate comes with a range, because it is based on incomplete real-time information.
How the estimate for Q3 2026 has evolved
Each point is the estimate made on that Friday with the data available at the time. The shaded bands show the uncertainty: the darker band contains the outcome with 50% probability, the lighter band with 80%. The bands narrow as more monthly data for the quarter are published.
Each bar shows how much the data published that week moved the nowcast, split by type of data. Grey bars are revisions to figures published earlier.
What changed this week
The data published this week moved the estimate by +0.06 percentage points (surveys +0.06).
Contributions are computed with the model: each group of releases is added in turn and the change in the average nowcast is recorded. Totals can differ from the headline figure, a median, by a few hundredths.
New data published since last week:
- Consumer confidence (Sep 2026): -3.0 points
GDP growth in 2026
Estimate for 2026 as a whole: 0.85% (80% range 0.45% to 1.28%), with the data available on 30 October 2026.
If GDP stayed at its Q2 2026 level for the rest of the year, growth in 2026 would be 0.78% (the carry-over, or crescita acquisita, also reported by ISTAT). The nowcast for Q3 2026 adds +0.08 points and the model’s forecast for Q4 2026 -0.01.
Annual growth is the average GDP level of the four quarters over the average of the previous year, using seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarterly data. ISTAT’s annual figure is not adjusted for the number of working days and can differ by one or two tenths. Quarters still to come are model forecasts, so their range is wider.
In context
Historical Italy GDP growth
Grey bars are official ISTAT figures (latest available vintage); the blue bar is this week’s nowcast with its 80% range.
How accurate has the nowcast been?
Nowcast accuracy
Every quarter we compare our last estimate before the official release with ISTAT’s first estimate. Nowcasts are estimates made with incomplete real-time information.
| Quarter | Our last nowcast | 80% range | ISTAT first estimate | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.35% | -0.10% to 0.81% | 0.19% | +0.15 pp |
| Q1 2026 | 0.21% | -0.20% to 0.62% | 0.17% | +0.05 pp |
| Q4 2025 | -0.06% | -0.23% to 0.11% | 0.32% | -0.38 pp |
About the model
Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR (MF-BVAR)
The nowcast comes from a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression (MF-BVAR, as in Schorfheide and Song, 2015, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics). The model describes how the monthly indicators and quarterly GDP move together, and uses that historical relationship to fill in the months and quarters that have not been published yet. Uncertainty is measured by simulating the model many times; the ranges shown on this page come from those simulations.
The model parameters are estimated on data from 2000 to 2024 and kept fixed; each week only the data are updated, so changes in the nowcast come from new information, not from re-estimation. The model is estimated with the Empirical Macro Toolbox (see Ferroni and Canova, 2020). Data come from Eurostat, ISTAT and the ECB.
Details
Weekly estimates for this quarter
| Estimate made on | Quarter-on-quarter | 80% range | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 October 2026 | 0.15% | -0.25% to 0.53% | 0.94% |
| 23 October 2026 | 0.08% | -0.30% to 0.48% | 0.88% |
| 16 October 2026 | 0.11% | -0.26% to 0.51% | 0.91% |
| 9 October 2026 | 0.11% | -0.26% to 0.51% | 0.91% |
| 2 October 2026 | 0.12% | -0.26% to 0.51% | 0.94% |
| 25 September 2026 | 0.14% | -0.28% to 0.60% | 0.97% |
| 18 September 2026 | 0.14% | -0.28% to 0.60% | 0.97% |
| 11 September 2026 | 0.21% | -0.21% to 0.66% | 1.03% |
| 4 September 2026 | 0.19% | -0.24% to 0.64% | 1.02% |
| 28 August 2026 | 0.19% | -0.25% to 0.67% | 1.04% |
| 21 August 2026 | 0.21% | -0.23% to 0.68% | 1.05% |
| 14 August 2026 | 0.21% | -0.23% to 0.68% | 1.05% |
| 7 August 2026 | 0.20% | -0.26% to 0.66% | 1.05% |
| 31 July 2026 | 0.38% | -0.10% to 0.85% | 1.22% |
| 24 July 2026 | 0.02% | -0.62% to 0.68% | 0.96% |
| 17 July 2026 | 0.02% | -0.62% to 0.68% | 0.96% |
| 10 July 2026 | 0.00% | -0.64% to 0.66% | 0.90% |
| 3 July 2026 | 0.02% | -0.63% to 0.68% | 0.91% |
Data releases since the start of the quarter
| Week of | Indicator | Data for | Change on previous period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 October 2026 | Consumer confidence | Sep 2026 | -3.0 points |
| 23 October 2026 | Exports | Aug 2026 | -1.6% on previous month |
| 23 October 2026 | Imports | Aug 2026 | -1.7% on previous month |
| 9 October 2026 | Industrial production | Aug 2026 | -1.3% on previous month |
| 9 October 2026 | Industrial production in Germany | Aug 2026 | +0.4% on previous month |
| 2 October 2026 | Industrial confidence | Sep 2026 | +1.1 points |
| 2 October 2026 | Consumer prices (HICP) | Sep 2026 | +2.1% on previous month |
| 2 October 2026 | 1-year Euribor interest rate | Sep 2026 | +0.29 percentage points |
| 2 October 2026 | Retail sales (volume) | Aug 2026 | +0.1% on previous month |
| 2 October 2026 | Unemployment rate | Aug 2026 | +0.20 percentage points |
| 2 October 2026 | Consumer prices (HICP) | Aug 2026 | +0.1% on previous month |
| 2 October 2026 | Consumer prices (HICP) | Jul 2026 | -1.0% on previous month |
| 2 October 2026 | Consumer prices (HICP) | Jun 2026 | +0.0% on previous month |
| 18 September 2026 | Exports | Jul 2026 | +0.3% on previous month |
| 18 September 2026 | Imports | Jul 2026 | -1.1% on previous month |
| 11 September 2026 | Industrial production | Jul 2026 | +0.6% on previous month |
| 11 September 2026 | Industrial production in Germany | Jul 2026 | -1.8% on previous month |
| 4 September 2026 | Consumer confidence | Aug 2026 | +0.0 points |
| 4 September 2026 | Industrial confidence | Aug 2026 | +0.9 points |
| 4 September 2026 | 1-year Euribor interest rate | Aug 2026 | +0.10 percentage points |
| 4 September 2026 | Retail sales (volume) | Jul 2026 | -0.4% on previous month |
| 4 September 2026 | Unemployment rate | Jul 2026 | +0.00 percentage points |
| 14 August 2026 | Industrial production in Germany | Jun 2026 | +0.3% on previous month |
| 14 August 2026 | Exports | Jun 2026 | +1.6% on previous month |
| 14 August 2026 | Imports | Jun 2026 | +0.9% on previous month |
| 7 August 2026 | 1-year Euribor interest rate | Jul 2026 | +0.06 percentage points |
| 7 August 2026 | Retail sales (volume) | Jun 2026 | +0.2% on previous month |
| 7 August 2026 | Industrial production | Jun 2026 | -1.0% on previous month |
| 31 July 2026 | Consumer confidence | Jul 2026 | +1.9 points |
| 31 July 2026 | Industrial confidence | Jul 2026 | +0.8 points |
| 31 July 2026 | Unemployment rate | Jun 2026 | +0.40 percentage points |
| 31 July 2026 | Real GDP | Q2 2026 | published |
Revisions to previously published data
| Week of | Indicator | Data for | Old value | New value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 October 2026 | Consumer confidence | Aug 2026 | -20.30 | -20.20 |
| 30 October 2026 | Industrial confidence | Aug 2026 | -4.40 | -4.30 |
| 23 October 2026 | Consumer prices (HICP) | Sep 2026 | 4.65 | 4.65 |
| 23 October 2026 | Exports | Jul 2026 | 10.96 | 10.96 |
| 23 October 2026 | Imports | Jul 2026 | 10.87 | 10.87 |
| 23 October 2026 | Exports | Jun 2026 | 10.95 | 10.95 |
| 23 October 2026 | Imports | Jun 2026 | 10.88 | 10.88 |
| 9 October 2026 | Industrial production | Jul 2026 | 4.55 | 4.54 |
| 9 October 2026 | Industrial production in Germany | Jul 2026 | 4.51 | 4.50 |
| 9 October 2026 | Industrial production | Jun 2026 | 4.54 | 4.54 |
| 9 October 2026 | Real GDP | Q2 2026 | 4.72 | 4.73 |
| 2 October 2026 | Industrial confidence | Aug 2026 | -4.80 | -4.40 |
| 2 October 2026 | Retail sales (volume) | Jul 2026 | 4.58 | 4.58 |
| 2 October 2026 | Unemployment rate | Jul 2026 | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| 2 October 2026 | Industrial confidence | Jul 2026 | -5.40 | -5.20 |
| 2 October 2026 | Unemployment rate | Jun 2026 | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| 18 September 2026 | Imports | Jun 2026 | 10.89 | 10.88 |
| 11 September 2026 | Industrial production in Germany | Jun 2026 | 4.52 | 4.52 |
| 4 September 2026 | Retail sales (volume) | Jun 2026 | 4.59 | 4.58 |
| 4 September 2026 | Unemployment rate | Jun 2026 | 5.70 | 5.80 |
| 4 September 2026 | Real GDP | Q2 2026 | 4.72 | 4.72 |
| 28 August 2026 | Industrial confidence | Jun 2026 | -6.10 | -6.00 |
| 31 July 2026 | Consumer confidence | Jun 2026 | -22.20 | -22.10 |
| 31 July 2026 | Industrial confidence | Jun 2026 | -6.40 | -6.10 |
Indicators used
| Indicator | Frequency | Source | Enters the model as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail sales (volume) | Monthly | EUROSTAT | log level |
| Unemployment rate | Monthly | EUROSTAT | level |
| Consumer confidence | Monthly | EUROSTAT | level |
| Industrial confidence | Monthly | EUROSTAT | level |
| Industrial production | Monthly | EUROSTAT | log level |
| Industrial production in Germany | Monthly | EUROSTAT | log level |
| Consumer prices (HICP) | Monthly | EUROSTAT | log level |
| 1-year Euribor interest rate | Monthly | ECB | level |
| Exports | Monthly | ISTAT | log level |
| Imports | Monthly | ISTAT | log level |
| Real GDP | Quarterly | EUROSTAT | log level |
IT Now is an independent research project by Filippo Ferroni (University of Bologna). It is not an official statistic and does not represent the views of any institution. It is not investment advice.
Page generated automatically on 30 Oct 2026 08:12.