Filippo Ferroni

Filippo Ferroni

Professor

IT Now

This page updates on Fridays on a weekly base.

Italy GDP Nowcast Report

The Italian GDP nowcasts are constructed using the Mixed Frequency Bayesian Vector AutoRegressive (MFBVAR) model as in Schorfheide and Song (2015, JBES). The MFBVAR model is estimated using the Empirical Macro Toolbox, see Ferroni and Canova (2020).

Vintage date: 24-Jul-2026

Nowcast quarter: 2026:II

Summary: Italy’s Q2-2026 GDP nowcast is 1.6% YoY and 0.8% QoQ. Versus the prior week, both figures are unchanged (0.0 pp revision). The report shows no new releases since the previous vintage; earlier May trade prints (exports +0.20% MoM, imports +1.45% MoM) were already incorporated.

1. Latest nowcast

Latest nowcast (median, 20 and 80 percentiles) based on vintage 24-Jul-2026:

2. Trailing nowcast charts

The bands summarize model uncertainty, not a formal policy forecast range

Trailing nowcast and distribution – YoY growth

Trailing nowcast and distribution – YoY growth

Trailing nowcast and distribution – QoQ growth

Trailing nowcast and distribution – QoQ growth

3. Trailing nowcast table

Vintage dateLog level (p50)YoY (%, p50)QoQ (%, p50)
24-Jul-20264.72231.60.8
17-Jul-20264.72231.60.8
10-Jul-20264.72251.60.8
03-Jul-20264.72261.60.8
26-Jun-20264.72291.70.9
19-Jun-20264.72291.70.9
12-Jun-20264.72321.70.9
05-Jun-20264.72181.50.7
29-May-20264.71951.30.6
22-May-20264.71921.30.6
15-May-20264.71761.10.4
08-May-20264.71651.00.3
01-May-20264.71390.80.1
24-Apr-20264.71701.10.2
17-Apr-20264.71520.90.1
10-Apr-20264.71570.90.1
03-Apr-20264.71560.90.1

4. Short-run GDP projection charts

GDP forecast – YoY and QoQ growth rate

5. Interpretation of release values

Release values represent period-on-period changes. For log-transformed series, they approximate percentage growth rates, while for level series they represent absolute changes (for example, percentage-point changes for rates and index-point changes for survey balances).

SeriesTransformationInterpretation of release value
RetailLogMonth-on-month growth rate (%)
UNRLevelChange in percentage points (pp)
ConsumerConfLevelChange in index points
IndustrialConfLevelChange in index points
IPILogMonth-on-month growth rate (%)
IPI-DELogMonth-on-month growth rate (%)
HICPLogMonth-on-month growth rate (%)
EURIBOR-1YLevelChange in percentage points (pp)
EXPLogMonth-on-month growth rate (%)
IMPLogMonth-on-month growth rate (%)
RGDPLog + quarterly-to-monthly fillApprox. monthly growth rate (%)

6. Data updates since previous vintage

6A. New releases

Below we list only the genuinely new releases, i.e. observations that were missing in the previous vintage and become available in the current one. The last column reports the release value, i.e. the period-on-period change implied by the current vintage (for log-transformed series, approximately a growth rate in %; for level series, an absolute change).

From vintageTo vintageSeriesObservation dateNew valueRelease value
10-Jul-202617-Jul-2026EXP31-May-202610.940.20
10-Jul-202617-Jul-2026IMP31-May-202610.871.45
03-Jul-202610-Jul-2026IPI31-May-20264.55-0.32
03-Jul-202610-Jul-2026IPIDE31-May-20264.520.77
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026ConsumerConf30-Jun-2026-22.20-0.90
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026IndustrialConf30-Jun-2026-6.400.50
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026EURIBOR1Y30-Jun-20262.80-0.01
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026Retail31-May-20264.58-0.31
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026UNR31-May-20265.00-0.10
12-Jun-202619-Jun-2026EXP30-Apr-202610.93-2.07
12-Jun-202619-Jun-2026IMP30-Apr-202610.86-0.49
05-Jun-202612-Jun-2026IPI30-Apr-20264.550.42
05-Jun-202612-Jun-2026IPIDE30-Apr-20264.510.22
29-May-202605-Jun-2026ConsumerConf31-May-2026-21.302.50
29-May-202605-Jun-2026IndustrialConf31-May-2026-6.80-0.10
29-May-202605-Jun-2026EURIBOR1Y31-May-20262.800.06
29-May-202605-Jun-2026Retail30-Apr-20264.580.00
29-May-202605-Jun-2026UNR30-Apr-20265.10-0.10
15-May-202622-May-2026EXP31-Mar-202610.964.09
15-May-202622-May-2026IMP31-Mar-202610.874.70
08-May-202615-May-2026IPI31-Mar-20264.550.74
08-May-202615-May-2026IPIDE31-Mar-20264.51-0.77
01-May-202608-May-2026Retail31-Mar-20264.580.41
24-Apr-202601-May-2026ConsumerConf30-Apr-2026-23.90-3.70
24-Apr-202601-May-2026IndustrialConf30-Apr-2026-6.90-0.80
24-Apr-202601-May-2026EURIBOR1Y30-Apr-20262.750.18
24-Apr-202601-May-2026UNR31-Mar-20265.20-0.10
24-Apr-202601-May-2026RGDP31-Mar-20264.71NaN

6B. Value changes

Below we list only the changes in the already published data between consecutive vintages. The last column reports the revision, computed as New value minus Old value.

From vintageTo vintageSeriesObservation dateOld valueNew valueRevision
10-Jul-202617-Jul-2026EXP30-Apr-202610.934510.93560.0011
10-Jul-202617-Jul-2026IMP30-Apr-202610.859110.86010.0011
10-Jul-202617-Jul-2026EXP31-Mar-202610.956910.9563-0.0006
10-Jul-202617-Jul-2026IMP31-Mar-202610.865410.8651-0.0004
03-Jul-202610-Jul-2026IPI30-Apr-20264.55284.5518-0.0011
03-Jul-202610-Jul-2026IPIDE30-Apr-20264.50984.51200.0022
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026IndustrialConf31-May-2026-6.8000-6.9000-0.1000
26-Jun-202603-Jul-2026Retail30-Apr-20264.58394.58800.0041
12-Jun-202619-Jun-2026EXP31-Mar-202610.956610.95690.0003
12-Jun-202619-Jun-2026IMP31-Mar-202610.866510.8654-0.0011
05-Jun-202612-Jun-2026IPIDE31-Mar-20264.50534.50980.0044
29-May-202605-Jun-2026Retail31-Mar-20264.58194.58800.0061
29-May-202605-Jun-2026RGDP31-Mar-20264.71344.71430.0010
22-May-202629-May-2026ConsumerConf30-Apr-2026-23.9000-23.80000.1000
22-May-202629-May-2026IndustrialConf30-Apr-2026-6.9000-6.80000.1000
24-Apr-202601-May-2026ConsumerConf31-Mar-2026-20.0000-20.1000-0.1000
24-Apr-202601-May-2026IndustrialConf31-Mar-2026-5.8000-6.0000-0.2000

7. Dataset

Data coverage

SeriesDescriptionStartEnd
RetailTurnover and volume of sales in wholesale and retail trade, SA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
UNRUnemployment Rate, SA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
ConsumerConfEurostat’s consumer confidence, SA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
IndustrialConfEurostat’s industrial confidence (manufacturing proxy), SA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
IPIIndustrial Production Index, SA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
IPI-DEIndustrial Production Index, SA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
HICPHICP, NSA, monthly.MEUROSTAT
EURIBOR-1YEuribor 1Y monthly avg (ECB).MECB
EXPExports to World, SA, monthly.MISTAT
IMPImports from World, SA, monthly.MISTAT
RGDPReal GDP, SA, chain‑linked (quarterly).QEUROSTAT

8. Previous-quarter nowcast vs realized GDP

This chart compares the sequence of nowcasts for the previous quarter with the subsequently released GDP estimate.

Previous Quarter Nowcast – YoY and QoQ growth rate

Report automatically generated on 24-Jul-2026 12:08:30.