IT Nowcast

Italy GDP Nowcast Report

The Italian GDP nowcasts are constructed using the Mixed Frequency Bayesian Vector AutoRegressive (MFBVAR) model of Schorfheide and Song (2015, JBES). The MFBVAR model is estimated using the Empirical Macro Toolbox, discussed in Ferroni and Canova (2020). This page updates on Fridays on a weekly base.

Vintage date: 30-Apr-2026

Nowcast quarter: 2026:I

1. Latest nowcast

Latest nowcast based on vintage 30-Apr-2026:

• YoY growth (%): 0.86
• QoQ growth (%): 0.37
• GDP log level (p50): 4.7149

2. Trailing nowcast charts

Trailing nowcast and distribution – YoY growth

Trailing nowcast and distribution – QoQ growth

3. Trailing nowcast table

4. Forecast charts

GDP forecast – Log levels

GDP forecast – YoY growth

GDP forecast – QoQ growth

5. Interpretation of release values

Release values represent period-on-period changes. For log-transformed series, they approximate percentage growth rates, while for level series they represent absolute changes (for example, percentage-point changes for rates and index-point changes for survey balances).

6. Data updates since previous vintage

6A. New releases

Below we list only the genuinely new releases, i.e. observations that were missing in the previous vintage and become available in the current one. The last column reports the release value, i.e. the period-on-period change implied by the current vintage (for log-transformed series, approximately a growth rate in %; for level series, an absolute change).

6B. Value changes

Below we list only the changes in the already published data between consecutive vintages. The last column reports the revision, computed as New value minus Old value.

7. Dataset

Data coverage

Per-series figures

Report automatically generated on 30-Apr-2026 11:32:10.